World Cup 2026 · Ranking

Elo + Poisson model · Monte-Carlo qualification odds · updated 06 Aug 2026, 07:00 · 104 games played

Group standings top 2 + 8 best 3rd-placed advance · highlighted = projected top 2

Group Alive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Mexico2003	3	3	0	0	+6	9	12.0	100%
2	South Africa1690	3	1	1	1	-1	4	4.0	100%
3	South Korea1837	3	1	0	2	-1	3	3.0	0%
4	Czech Republic1751	3	0	1	2	-4	1	1.0	0%

Group Blive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Switzerland2000	3	2	1	0	+4	7	11.0	100%
2	Canada1836	3	1	1	1	+5	4	7.0	100%
3	Bosnia and Herzegovina1678	3	1	1	1	-1	4	4.0	100%
4	Qatar1539	3	0	1	2	-8	1	1.0	0%

Group Clive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	United States1833	3	2	0	1	+4	6	9.0	100%
2	Australia1902	3	1	1	1	+0	4	5.0	100%
3	Paraguay1895	3	1	1	1	-2	4	5.0	100%
4	Turkey1917	3	1	0	2	-2	3	3.0	0%

Group Dlive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Brazil2071	3	2	1	0	+6	7	10.0	100%
2	Morocco2024	3	2	1	0	+3	7	11.0	100%
3	Scotland1816	3	1	0	2	-3	3	3.0	0%
4	Haiti1660	3	0	0	3	-6	0	0.0	0%

Group Elive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Germany1984	3	2	0	1	+6	6	7.0	100%
2	Ivory Coast1841	3	2	0	1	+2	6	6.0	100%
3	Ecuador1957	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100%
4	Curaçao1595	3	0	1	2	-8	1	1.0	0%

Group Flive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Netherlands2041	3	2	1	0	+6	7	8.0	100%
2	Japan1968	3	1	2	0	+4	5	5.0	100%
3	Sweden1797	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100%
4	Tunisia1661	3	0	0	3	-10	0	0.0	0%

Group Glive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Spain2322	3	2	1	0	+5	7	22.0	100%
2	Cape Verde1701	3	0	3	0	+0	3	3.0	100%
3	Uruguay1919	3	0	2	1	-1	2	2.0	0%
4	Saudi Arabia1703	3	0	2	1	-4	2	2.0	0%

Group Hlive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Belgium2020	3	1	2	0	+4	5	11.0	100%
2	Egypt1853	3	1	2	0	+2	5	6.0	100%
3	Iran1881	3	0	3	0	+0	3	3.0	0%
4	New Zealand1674	3	0	1	2	-6	1	1.0	0%

Group Ilive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	France2135	3	3	0	+8	9	18.0	100%
2	Norway2016	3	2	1	+1	6	12.0	100%
3	Senegal1876	3	1	2	+2	3	3.0	100%
4	Iraq1670	3	0	3	-11	0	0.0	0%

Group Jlive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Argentina2244	3	3	0	0	+7	9	21.0	100%
2	Austria1883	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100%
3	Algeria1852	3	1	1	1	-2	4	4.0	100%
4	Jordan1715	3	0	0	3	-5	0	0.0	0%

Group Klive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	England2193	3	2	1	0	+4	7	19.0	100%
2	Croatia1943	3	2	0	1	+0	6	6.0	100%
3	Ghana1684	3	1	1	1	+0	4	4.0	100%
4	Panama1765	3	0	0	3	-4	0	0.0	0%

Group Llive table · model xPts & P(advance)

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	xPts	Advance
1	Colombia2081	3	2	1	0	+3	7	11.0	100%
2	Portugal2055	3	1	2	0	+5	5	8.0	100%
3	DR Congo1807	3	1	1	1	+1	4	4.0	100%
4	Uzbekistan1727	3	0	0	3	-9	0	0.0	0%

#	Team	Elo	P(advance)	Win group
1	Spain	2322	100%	100%
2	Argentina	2244	100%	100%
3	England	2193	100%	100%
4	France	2135	100%	100%
5	Colombia	2081	100%	100%
6	Brazil	2071	100%	0%
7	Portugal	2055	100%	0%
8	Netherlands	2041	100%	100%
9	Morocco	2024	100%	100%
10	Belgium	2020	100%	100%
11	Norway	2016	100%	0%
12	Mexico	2003	100%	100%
13	Switzerland	2000	100%	100%
14	Germany	1984	100%	100%
15	Japan	1968	100%	0%
16	Ecuador	1957	100%	0%
17	Croatia	1943	100%	0%
18	Uruguay	1919	0%	0%
19	Turkey	1917	0%	0%
20	Australia	1902	100%	0%
21	Paraguay	1895	100%	0%
22	Austria	1883	100%	0%
23	Iran	1881	0%	0%
24	Senegal	1876	100%	0%
25	Egypt	1853	100%	0%
26	Algeria	1852	100%	0%
27	Ivory Coast	1841	100%	0%
28	South Korea	1837	0%	0%
29	Canada	1836	100%	0%
30	United States	1833	100%	100%
31	Scotland	1816	0%	0%
32	DR Congo	1807	100%	0%
33	Sweden	1797	100%	0%
34	Panama	1765	0%	0%
35	Czech Republic	1751	0%	0%
36	Uzbekistan	1727	0%	0%
37	Jordan	1715	0%	0%
38	Saudi Arabia	1703	0%	0%
39	Cape Verde	1701	100%	0%
40	South Africa	1690	100%	0%
41	Ghana	1684	100%	0%
42	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1678	100%	0%
43	New Zealand	1674	0%	0%
44	Iraq	1670	0%	0%
45	Tunisia	1661	0%	0%
46	Haiti	1660	0%	0%
47	Curaçao	1595	0%	0%
48	Qatar	1539	0%	0%