World Cup 2026 · Bracket

projected road to the final · updated 06 Aug 2026, 07:00 · from 50,000-sim Monte-Carlo

Model & bets Ranking Winner Bracket Results

Projected champion

Spain

100% to win the tournament

Most likely final

Spain vs Argentina

this exact pairing in 100.0% of sims

Dark horses best runs from outside the top 8 — the surprise channel

Czech Republic SF 0% · final 0%Mexico SF 0% · final 0%South Africa SF 0% · final 0%South Korea SF 0% · final 0%Bosnia and Herzegovina SF 0% · final 0%Canada SF 0% · final 0%

Bracket the real draw — group stage complete

Round of 32

Germany0%

1–1

Paraguay100%

France100%

3–0

Sweden0%

South Africa0%

0–1

Canada100%

Netherlands0%

1–1

Morocco100%

Portugal100%

2–1

Croatia0%

Spain100%

3–0

Austria0%

United States100%

2–0

Bosnia and Herzegovina0%

Belgium100%

3–2

Senegal0%

Brazil100%

2–1

Japan0%

Ivory Coast0%

1–2

Norway100%

Mexico100%

2–0

Ecuador0%

England100%

2–1

DR Congo0%

Argentina100%

3–2

Cape Verde0%

Australia0%

1–1

Egypt100%

Switzerland100%

2–0

Algeria0%

Colombia100%

1–0

Ghana0%

Round of 16

Paraguay0%

0–1

France100%

Canada0%

0–3

Morocco100%

Portugal0%

0–1

Spain100%

United States0%

1–4

Belgium100%

Brazil0%

1–2

Norway100%

Mexico0%

2–3

England100%

Argentina100%

3–2

Egypt0%

Switzerland100%

0–0

Colombia0%

Quarter-finals

France100%

2–0

Morocco0%

Spain100%

2–1

Belgium0%

Norway0%

1–2

England100%

Argentina100%

3–1

Switzerland0%

Semi-finals

France0%

0–2

Spain100%

England0%

1–2

Argentina100%

Final

Spain100%

1–0

Argentina0%

Champion

Spain

The bracket follows the official 2026 draw (round-of-32 slot table). Each tie shows the predicted 90' score and knockout win %, with the projected winner highlighted. It's the model's most-likely path — across the full Monte-Carlo any team can go further (see the dark horses and the Winner page). Once the group stage is played, the real qualifiers and head-to-head ties flow in automatically.